Infiltration and Influence: Part 6

Decoding the Tactics Behind Penetrating the MAGA Movement

As an EOD technician, one of the critical skills we develop, especially during combat operations, is the observation of human behavior. This is crucial for understanding trends, statistics, and the reasoning behind the improvised explosive device (IED) threat. When motivated in specific ways, human beings produce distinct patterns. For example, in my line of work, if I understand your motivation regarding an IED, I can predict where you’re likely to place it, who you’re going to target, and what materials you might use to build it—often with remarkable accuracy.

My speculative analysis is based on indirect evidence of human behavior and patterns. Patterns of behavior and trends are forms of indirect evidence that can be highly informative for understanding and predicting actions, intentions, or outcomes, especially in complex systems like politics, economics, and social dynamics. Here’s how they function as evidence:

Identification of Repeated Actions:

Consistency Over Time: When certain behaviors or trends are observed consistently over time, they suggest underlying motivations or strategies. For instance, if a political group repeatedly engages in spreading disinformation during election cycles, it indicates a deliberate tactic to influence voter behavior.

Correlation with Outcomes: Patterns of behavior that consistently precede specific outcomes can suggest a cause-and-effect relationship, even if direct evidence of causality is lacking. For example, the repeated use of divisive rhetoric before elections followed by increased voter polarization could suggest that such rhetoric is a deliberate strategy to influence the electorate.

Inferences from Trends:

Predictive Power: Trends can be powerful tools for prediction. If certain trends have reliably led to specific outcomes in the past, they can be used to predict future behavior or events. For instance, a trend of increasing disinformation around critical political events may predict further attempts to manipulate public opinion.

Statistical Analysis: Trends can be quantified and analyzed statistically to determine their significance. This analysis can provide strong evidence that the observed trends are not random but are likely the result of deliberate actions or systemic factors.

Contextual and Circumstantial Evidence:

Supporting Other Evidence: Patterns of behavior and trends can support or corroborate other types of evidence. For example, if direct evidence of a disinformation campaign is sparse, consistent patterns of similar disinformation tactics across multiple campaigns can strengthen the case that such a campaign exists.

Contextualizing Behavior: Trends provide context that can make individual actions more understandable or suspicious. For instance, if a political group’s actions are part of a broader trend of disinformation, it’s more plausible to interpret those actions as part of a coordinated effort rather than isolated incidents.

Social and Psychological Indicators:

Behavioral Patterns in Groups: In social and political contexts, patterns of behavior among groups or individuals can reveal underlying social or psychological dynamics. For instance, the spread of conspiracy theories within a particular demographic can indicate a broader trend of distrust in institutions, which may be exploited by various actors for political gain.

Trend Analysis in Public Opinion: Monitoring trends in public opinion can provide evidence of how effective certain narratives or campaigns have been, even if direct evidence of those campaigns’ origins is not available.

Legal and Investigative Uses:

Evidence in Investigations: In legal contexts, patterns of behavior can serve as circumstantial evidence that supports a hypothesis or accusation. For example, if a company consistently violates environmental regulations in different regions, this pattern can be used as evidence of a corporate culture that disregards the law.

Building a Case: In investigations, patterns of behavior help build a narrative or case, especially when direct evidence is lacking. For example, identifying a pattern of similar disinformation tactics used by a political group across different elections can suggest that these tactics are part of an organized effort.

Patterns of behavior and trends are important forms of evidence that provide context, support other evidence, and can be used to infer causality or predict future actions. While they may not be as concrete as direct evidence, they are critical in forming a comprehensive understanding of complex situations, especially when direct evidence is scarce or difficult to obtain. These patterns are often used in fields such as sociology, psychology, economics, and political science to understand and anticipate human behavior.

The persistence of narratives like those propagated by Patel Patriot and Derek Johnson can be attributed to a combination of psychological, social, and potentially strategic factors.

Psychological Entrenchment:

Cognitive Dissonance: Once individuals have deeply invested in a belief system, it becomes incredibly difficult for them to accept information that contradicts those beliefs. Admitting that they were misled or wrong can cause significant psychological discomfort, known as cognitive dissonance. To avoid this discomfort, people often double down on their beliefs, even in the face of contradictory evidence.

Sunk Cost Fallacy: Many followers of these theories have invested significant time, energy, and even money into supporting these narratives. This sunk cost makes it harder for them to walk away from the beliefs, as doing so would mean admitting that their investment was wasted.

Social and Community Dynamics:

Echo Chambers: These narratives are perpetuated within echo chambers where like-minded individuals reinforce each other’s beliefs. Social media platforms, Telegram groups, and forums allow these communities to exist relatively insulated from outside criticism. Within these spaces, the narratives continue to evolve and become more deeply entrenched.

Social Identity: For many, belief in these theories has become a part of their identity. Being part of a community that shares these beliefs provides a sense of belonging and purpose, making it even more difficult to let go of the narrative.

Potential Strategic Operations:

Ongoing Disinformation Campaigns: While there is no concrete evidence that the current propagation of these narratives is part of an organized operation, it is possible that certain actors—whether state, non-state, or politically motivated groups—continue to amplify these narratives for strategic purposes. These could include sowing division, distracting from other issues, or demoralizing certain voter bases.

Monetary Incentives: There are also financial incentives for continuing to promote these narratives. Content creators, influencers, and even some platforms profit from the engagement generated by these sensational stories. The more controversial and engaging the content, the more followers, donations, and ad revenue they can generate.

Human Nature and the Appeal of Conspiracy Theories:

Desire for Certainty: In uncertain and complex times, conspiracy theories can offer a sense of clarity and control. They provide simple explanations for complex events, making the world seem more understandable and predictable.

Narrative Appeal: These theories often frame their believers as having special knowledge, part of a "chosen" group that understands the "real truth" behind global events. This can be psychologically gratifying and empowering, reinforcing the desire to believe and spread the narrative.

It’s very tempting to adopt a single point of view, but when examining these psychological and social dynamics, we must consider all possible variables. I believe that political action committees, political advocacy groups, and politics in general prey upon or exploit these psychological and social dynamics. We need to recognize and understand that these entities will try to manipulate us—and have done so in the past.

People are naturally drawn to narratives that confirm their existing beliefs, especially when those narratives are reinforced by their community and provide a sense of identity or purpose. Additionally, the financial and social rewards for those who propagate these narratives ensure their continued presence in the public discourse, regardless of whether they are part of an organized campaign.

Disclaimer:

This speculative analysis is based on real disinformation tactics outlined in the DISARM framework and the historical actions of political committees, PACs, and Super PACs to influence public opinion. While these patterns and strategies are real and have been used in various contexts, this narrative is a hypothetical scenario designed to illustrate how such tactics could be employed. The DISARM framework was developed to detect and combat disinformation, not to create it. The examples provided are meant to educate and raise awareness of the sophisticated strategies that can manipulate public opinion, emphasizing the critical need for citizens to remain vigilant and informed.

My speculation is based on my experience and observations. I understand that this view may not be popular, but as an American, I have the freedom of speech and the right to theorize, just as anyone else does. This is my theory and what I believe could have happened—or very closely might have happened.

"Patterns don’t lie, people do. If you ignore the evidence of manipulation, you’re complicit in your own deception. It’s time to wise up—because the cost of ignorance is far too high."

Written by SparetanAltsobaPatriot